COP31: The Electrification Agenda

Texas Impact is on the ground in Antalya, Türkiye, at the United Nations climate negotiations known as COP31. Each day, Texas Impact staff and other U.S. faith delegates are reporting on the proceedings, and sharing conversations with global colleagues about the state of play and the urgency of the moment. Find more coverage at austinchronicle.com/COP31.

In some ways, the United Nations climate negotiations are similar to the Olympics: Nations take turns hosting the event, and each year’s COP reflects the culture and themes of the host, with participating countries showcasing their achievements and distinctives through displays and activities. This year’s host country is Türkiye, and the country’s leaders have pulled out all the stops to infuse the event with Turkish culture. There are musicians playing traditional instruments, booths serving traditional foods, and artisans showcasing traditional crafts spread throughout the venue.

Unlike the Olympics, however, the host country also presides over the COP as “the Presidency.” This year, for the first time ever, there are co-Presidencies—Türkiye and Australia. The Presidency has the opportunity to influence the negotiations in a number of ways, including by championing initiatives and priorities.

The Turkish and Australian presidencies unveiled three key priorities in June:

• Electrification target to raise share of final energy demand met by electricity from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035
• Halving growth in global waste by 2035
• Resilient Cities target of reducing energy consumption intensity in the building sector by at least 25% by 2035

Of the three, the “35-by-35” electrification target has received by far the lion’s share of attention. Electrification means converting an energy-consuming device, system, or sector from non-electric energy to electricity. In areas without current access to public utilities, electrification also means installing electric power in the first place. Electrification is not so much a goal in and of itself as a means to achieve ends, which can include increased access to energy, lower energy costs, and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The electrification agenda intersects with other critical policy areas, including health care and data centers—and by extension, education and other areas that will be influenced by AI.

The Presidencies’ electrification proposal has not met with an equal level of buy-in from all stakeholders. Those who are focused on technical solutions for climate mitigation highlight the potential for renewable electric generation to displace other forms of energy that depend on fossil fuels. Skeptics point out that the 35 x 35 proposal is silent as to the fuel used in generation—meaning that a massive electric buildout could simply lead to increased coal and gas generation.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a special report in September 2026 analyzing the Presidencies’ proposal in light of existing technologies and trends. According to the report:

If low-emissions sources of electricity continue to grow in line with today’s policy settings, their growth is just sufficient to meet all additional electricity demand in aggregate. As a result, emissions from electricity generation decline modestly, reinforcing emissions reductions in end-uses. However, a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 IEA requires a much faster expansion of low-emissions supply, with annual solar PV additions doubling to over 1200 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, wind additions increasing by two-and-a-half times to around 400 GW and nuclear power making a strong comeback.

The Presidencies are seeking national endorsements of their 35-by-35 pledge, and according to reports here at COP, they hope to include the plan in the final COP decision text. So far, however, few nations have signed the pledge, with many holding out for clear direction that new electric generation must be from non-fossil sources.

Since the U.S. is not participating in the COP officially, it’s unlikely we would consider signing onto the pledge. It’s important to note, however, that before Congress enacted HR1, gutting the energy initiatives in the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. was on track for significant new renewable generation. Moreover, the IRA targeted resources to make renewable energy available to all Americans, not just the affluent.

The impact of HR1 on renewable energy has been significant, and taken the U.S. and the world in the wrong direction. According to the IEA’s 2025 Renewables report:

Globally, we have lowered our renewable energy growth forecast for 2025-2030 by 5% compared to last year, to reflect policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024. This revision means we now expect 248 GW less renewable capacity to be commissioned over 2025-2030.

For solar PV, wind and bioenergy for power, deployment has been revised downwards. Solar PV accounts for over 70% of the absolute reduction, mainly from utility-scale projects, while offshore wind demonstrates the largest relative decline in growth over the forecast period, decreasing 27%.

The US forecast is revised down by almost 50% across all technologies except geothermal. This reflects the earlier-than-expected phase-out of investment and production tax credits; new “foreign entities of concern” (FEOC) restrictions; and the executive order suspending offshore wind leasing and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land. Among all technologies, wind is impacted most, with both offshore and onshore capacity growth revised down by almost 60% (57 GW) over the forecast period. The forecast for solar PV capacity has been revised down by almost 40%.

It’s a complex picture. On the one hand, renewable growth is expected to trend up over the next 10 years—but on the other hand, shifts in national political environments could jeopardize expected progress. Electrification is key to achieving “net zero by 2050,” but only if the electricity is carbon-free.

It will be crucial for American climate advocates to stay engaged and stay focused. We’ll have a lot of new faces in government in January, and they will need all the wisdom and support we can offer to make sure the U.S. leads on clean, affordable electrification.

Texas Impact is Texas’ oldest and largest interfaith advocacy network. Based in Austin with members in every corner of the state, Texas Impact equips and mobilizes Texans of faith and conscience to advocate for public policies that reflect widely shared, deeply held values of love and justice. Learn more and get involved at texasimpact.org.

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