Can You Trust the Polls That Say Texas Could Go Blue?

Before Colin Allred’s campaign even got word of the late August poll, the news had already spread to social media. Democrats gleefully touted that the congressman, who represents a Dallas-based district in the U.S. House, was on his way to unseating Senator Ted Cruz. The survey, from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, found that Cruz led Allred by roughly two percentage points (47 percent to 45), within the margin of error. The party quickly pounced on the news. Though Allred had not been publicly scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention, just minutes after the poll dropped, a new speaking lineup included his name. “On November 5,” an email sent that day from campaign manager Paige Hutchinson read, “Colin Allred is…

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